Historical institutionalism and policy coordination: origins of the European semester

Abstract Using historical institutionalism as a theoretical foundation, this paper explores whether multilateral surveillance and policy coordination under the European Semester (ES), introduced in aftermath of global financial crisis 2007–2008, was based on path-changing or path-dependent mechanism. Following legal-historical analysis going back to Maastricht Treaty, we demonstrate that ES its institutional form not result crisis-induced critical juncture, but rather gradual, evolution which kept balance power relations Union (EU) broadly unchanged. With this, offer critique literature post-crisis economic governance framework, sees an increase influence supranational actors, notably Commission. Focusing ES, our puts forward alternative view, grounded theory institutionalism, arguing has stayed same. The conclusion is 12 indicators, help understand ES.